UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott - Bet Recommendations

The sharpest play of the night sits in the co-main, not the main event.

The UFC returns to Winnipeg for the first time since December 2017. Nine Canadians on the card. Three Octagon debuts. And Mike Malott becomes the third Canadian-born fighter in UFC history to headline on home soil, joining Georges St-Pierre and Rory MacDonald.

The model’s read doesn’t follow the narrative. Malott opened as high as -590 and has drifted all the way to -280. Our conviction drifted with it: the main event is now a Speculative though still picking Malott, just not a Soft Edge. The one Sharp Edge on the card sits in the co-main, where Charles Jourdain gets a Kyler Phillips coming off back-to-back losses and a drop out of the top 15, there is also value in a finish (KO and/or Sub). Five Soft Edges, five Speculatives, one Pass. Full breakdown below.