UFC London Full Card Analysis: Where the Model Lands on Every Fight | Evloev vs. Murphy
Fourteen fights. One historic main event. And one call the model is making against the market.
OPENING
UFC London is back at The O2 Arena this Saturday, and the card the promotion has put together deserves your full attention. The headline story writes itself — Movsar Evloev and Lerone Murphy, a combined 36 wins and zero losses between them, meeting in a featherweight title eliminator that sets a new UFC record for the most wins without a loss in a single main event matchup. The winner almost certainly fights Alexander Volkanovski next.
But the card does not begin and end with the main event. There are seven undefeated fighters competing on Saturday. Five of the six main card bouts feature British fighters. And the model has made one call on the prelims that goes directly against the market in a fight that deserves a closer look than it is getting.
Here is the full analytical breakdown, from the first fight of the night all the way to the main event.
EARLY PRELIMS
Melissa Mullins vs. Luana Carolina — Women’s Bantamweight | 3 Rounds
The model gives Carolina a slim edge in the closest call on the card. This is a genuine coin flip and should be treated as such in any analytical framing.
Carolina is a Muay Thai black belt with a 6-4 UFC record and a three-fight win streak before a grappling beatdown against Michelle Montague exposed her takedown defense as a critical liability. Mullins is a double IBJJF World Champion grappler at 2-2 in the UFC with a physical, grinding style built on takedowns and top pressure. This is a classic grappler versus striker matchup where the decisive variable is whether Carolina’s takedown defense holds.
The model’s slim lean toward Carolina rests on her striking pedigree, experience, and reach advantages. Both fighters are coming off losses and have shown inconsistency in the UFC. Do not manufacture confidence on this one.
Shanelle Dyer vs. Ravena Oliveira — Women’s Strawweight | 3 Rounds
The model has no hesitation here. Dyer.
Dyer is one of the most decorated striking prospects on this entire card. Over 100 Muay Thai fights, 27 titles, training from the age of nine. She lost a DWCS bout to Carol Foro — knocked down three times — but showed such remarkable resilience that Dana White handed her a contract anyway. That chin and that heart matter. Oliveira is 0-2 in the UFC and has been outclassed at this level. The path to victory for Dyer is wide. The path for Oliveira is extremely narrow.
Shem Rock vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady — Lightweight | 3 Rounds
The model leans Rock, with meaningful uncertainty acknowledged on both sides.
Rock is a Liverpool grappler who trains at Next Gen MMA alongside Paddy Pimblett and Luke Riley. He has nine career submission wins and genuine home crowd support at the O2. His path to victory runs through his grappling — get the fight to the canvas and work his submission game.
Al-Selwady is a dynamic striker with a 15-4 record and real finishing ability. The flag the model will not ignore: he is returning from a two-year layoff that included a spine injury, and all four of his career losses have come by knockout. His durability and ring rust are the decisive analytical questions here. Rock’s grappling is the most reliable path through both of them.
Louie Sutherland vs. Brando Peričić — Heavyweight | 3 Rounds
The model takes Peričić. A strong lean.
Peričić is a City Kickboxing product — the same gym that produced Israel Adesanya — with highly technical striking, solid defensive wrestling, and dangerous ground-and-pound. He finished his UFC debut in round one. Sutherland lost his UFC debut to a heel hook in 84 seconds and brings virtually no grappling or submission defence to this fight. If Peričić gets to top position, the finish potential is significant.
Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Antonio Trocoli — Middleweight | 3 Rounds
The model has absolutely no hesitation. Kondratavičius, and it will not last long.
Kondratavičius is a 26-year-old Lithuanian explosive kickboxer making his official UFC debut with a 100 percent finish rate across his career — six knockouts and two submissions — after a 66-second DWCS knockout to earn his contract. Trocoli is 0-3 in the UFC and has been submitted via standing guillotine in consecutive fights. The under at 1.5 rounds is priced at -210 and the model fully supports that signal.
The only theoretical threat Trocoli presents: his 6’5” frame and 80-inch reach give him submission upside if Kondratavičius’s lone career loss by submission becomes relevant. The probability of Trocoli surviving long enough to exploit it is extremely low.
PRELIMS
Mario Pinto vs. Felipe Franco — Heavyweight | 3 Rounds
The model is very confident here. Pinto.
Pinto is 11-0 and fights out of Camden, North London. The O2 crowd will be fully behind him on Saturday. He has shown genuine technical range in his UFC appearances — knockout striking against Austen Lane, elite wrestling and smothering top pressure against Jhonata Diniz. He is patient, precise, and well-rounded.
Franco is a natural light heavyweight stepping up a full weight class on short notice as a replacement for the injured Mick Parkin. His regional record is heavily padded against opponents with losing records. His Contender Series loss exposed severe cardio and grappling limitations beyond round one. He enters with a significant size and reach disadvantage against a technically superior opponent on home turf.
The model sees an early finish.
Nathaniel Wood vs. Losene Keita — Featherweight | 3 Rounds
The model takes Wood. And the model is going against the market to do it.
The betting market has Keita as a significant favourite in his UFC debut — a debuting fighter priced well above a 13-fight UFC veteran. The model disagrees, and the reasoning centres on one flag that the market appears to be discounting.
Keita was originally scheduled to make his UFC debut against Patricio Pitbull at UFC Paris, where he missed the featherweight limit by four pounds. He has not successfully made 145 pounds in over two years. A severe weight cut could deplete the explosive energy and finishing power that make him such an attractive prospect in the first place. If the fight extends past round one, the model’s assessment shifts meaningfully toward Wood.
Wood is a 32-year-old veteran with a 6-1 record at featherweight and a proven pattern — he gets hurt early, he recovers, and he outworks opponents in the later rounds. He has done it repeatedly. He lands 5.74 significant strikes per minute, his takedown defense sits at 73 percent, and he is fighting at home in London.
Keita’s upside is real. His 63 percent career knockout rate and regional pedigree as a two-division Oktagon champion are not being dismissed. If he lands clean early on a Wood who typically starts slowly, this fight ends fast. But the model takes Wood. The weight cut history is a real flag and it is one the market is not fully pricing.
This is the closest call on the prelims. Treat it as such.
Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola — Lightweight | 3 Rounds
The model leans Jones. A moderate lean in a closely contested fight.
Jones is on a six-fight winning streak with Judo and BJJ black belts and an elite gas tank. His wrestling is underrated — 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55 percent accuracy — and his cardio turns close fights in the later rounds. He is hittable, absorbing 4.47 significant strikes per minute, and has been dropped in multiple fights. But he recovers and he grinds, and his multi-dimensional game becomes harder to deal with as the rounds accumulate.
Sola is a 6’2” southpaw karate kickboxer with a four-inch height advantage, an 11-0-1 record, and clean technique that could win the early rounds from distance. His UFC debut was at welterweight on short notice — this is his first fight at lightweight, which is a relevant unknown.
Neither fighter has ever been finished. Jones by decision is the analytical base case.
MAIN CARD
Kurtis Campbell vs. Danny Silva — Featherweight | 3 Rounds
The model takes Campbell. A confident lean with one key variable to watch.
Campbell is 8-0 and 23 years old, making his UFC debut after finishing Demba Seck in 80 seconds on the Contender Series via ground-and-pound elbows. His core game is clear — get the fight to the ground and punish. Silva has never been finished in his professional career, throws 6.67 significant strikes per minute, and has an 81 percent takedown defense that is the single most important number in this matchup.
If Silva’s takedown defense holds, this fight stays standing and his boxing volume gives him a real path to the scorecards. If Campbell cracks it, the fight goes to the ground and Silva’s durability is tested in a position where it has never been tested before.
The model is confident in Campbell. But Silva’s record as an unfinishable volume boxer means the over on rounds and a decision outcome are both analytically sound plays regardless of who wins.
Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan — Middleweight | 3 Rounds
The model lands firmly on Duncan, and the data backs this up across every dimension.
Duncan lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute at 58 percent accuracy with a striking differential of plus 1.63. He has back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses for violent spinning finishes against Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio. He is 30 years old, seven years younger than Dolidze, with a three-inch reach advantage and exceptional lateral movement. He has not lost a fight in London.
Dolidze is 3-3 in his last six fights and was dominated across four rounds by Anthony Hernandez in his most recent outing. His striking numbers confirm the concern: 3.41 significant strikes per minute at 41 percent accuracy, absorbing 3.72 — a negative differential that means he takes more clean damage than he lands. Most critically, his takedown defense sits at just 26 percent. That is not a weapon — it is a vulnerability. Duncan can use wrestling as an additional threat, entirely inverting the expected dynamic of this fight.
Dolidze’s submission game from guard remains a genuine danger — his calf-slicer finish of Jack Hermansson is a reminder of what he can do from bottom position. But at 26 percent takedown defense, he may find himself there involuntarily. The model sees Duncan winning this clearly.
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane — Light Heavyweight | 3 Rounds
The model has absolutely no hesitation here. Baraniewski.
Every single one of Baraniewski’s eight professional wins has ended in the first round. His two UFC appearances lasted a combined 109 seconds. He is a hyper-aggressive judoka-turned-striker with explosive power, a 100 percent first-round finish rate, and he has never been taken down in UFC competition.
Lane is 38 years old, making a dramatic drop from heavyweight to light heavyweight — approximately a 40-pound weight cut. He has been knocked out six times in his career. The weight cut at his age further compromises a chin already under significant stress throughout his career.
The market has the under at 1.5 rounds heavily juiced. The model agrees completely. Don’t blink.
Michael Page vs. Sam Patterson — Welterweight | 3 Rounds
The model takes Page. A confident lean.
Page is 38 years old but his recent UFC performances do not support a decline narrative. Wins over Shara Magomedov and Jared Cannonier, with a 60 percent striking accuracy and just 1.68 significant strikes absorbed per minute — elite damage avoidance numbers that have held up against quality opposition.
Patterson is a genuine threat. Four straight first-round finishes — two knockouts, two submissions — and a 2.8 submission average that makes every ground exchange dangerous. If he can drag Page to the canvas early and remove the distance management that defines his game, he has a path. His 33 percent takedown defense is a notable liability if Page attempts any takedowns of his own.
The training partner dynamic adds an unusual layer. Both men have acknowledged it and agreed to proceed. Page’s view is that his unpredictability gives him the edge. Analytically, familiarity cuts both ways.
Page by decision is the most analytically supported outcome.
Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Jr. — Featherweight | 3 Rounds
The model lands firmly on Riley. One of the stronger calls on the main card.
Riley is 12-0 with a 75 percent finish rate, a 60 percent striking accuracy, and absorbs just 1.27 significant strikes per minute — one of the best damage avoidance numbers on this entire card. He is a calculated counter-striker with genuine one-punch knockout power. His UFC debut showed some early ground vulnerability against Bogdan Grad but his recovery, composure, and clinical round two finish demonstrated exactly why he carries so much hype into this fight.
Aswell Jr. throws 9.56 significant strikes per minute — an extraordinary output number. He connects on 45 percent of them and absorbs 7.79 significant strikes per minute in return. He has never been knocked out, which is his primary asset. His durability and relentless pressure are genuine. But winning three rounds against an elusive, precise counter-puncher in front of a Liverpool crowd at the O2 is a hard ask.
This is a pure striking matchup — both fighters average zero takedowns per 15 minutes. Riley by decision is the analytical base case. A finish is possible if Aswell’s forward march walks into the wrong counter.
MAIN EVENT
Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy — Featherweight | 5 Rounds | Title Eliminator
The model takes Evloev. A meaningful lean — not a certainty — and it is important to say that clearly before getting into the case.
The structural argument for Evloev is straightforward. He attempts nearly five takedowns every fifteen minutes and Murphy’s takedown defense sits at 51 percent. Murphy is going to the canvas in this fight, and he is going to go there more than once. Evloev’s chain wrestling, scrambling ability, and relentless pace are the most reliable tools in this matchup, and the model assesses them as the deciding factor across five rounds.
But this is not a clean pick. Murphy is the cleaner striker by a significant margin — 4.48 significant strikes per minute at 53 percent accuracy with a striking differential of nearly plus two. If he keeps this fight standing, the math shifts heavily in his favour. He has the finishing power to make rounds four and five very dangerous for Evloev if the pace drops.
And that is the flag the model will not ignore. This will be Evloev’s first ever five-round fight in the UFC. Murphy has proven championship cardio — he has gone the full 25 minutes twice, against Edson Barboza and Josh Emmett, and got stronger as both fights progressed. Evloev showed signs of third-round fatigue in his grappling wars against Arnold Allen and Hakeem Dawodu. The cardio question is real and unresolved.
Add the London crowd factor. Murphy fights in front of his home country in a venue that will be deafening every time he lands cleanly. If this fight is close on the scorecards, that environment matters.
The model takes Evloev because the grappling volume is the most reliable structural edge available across a full 25 minutes. But this is the most competitive fight on the card and should be treated as such.
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CLOSING
UFC London delivers what it almost always delivers — a raucous atmosphere, British talent front and centre, and a main event worth the price of admission on its own. Evloev and Murphy is a fight that should have happened sooner, and the fact that it is happening now — in London, in front of a crowd that will make the O2 shake — makes it one of the most compelling Fight Night main events in recent memory.
The model has spoken across all fourteen fights. Trust it or challenge it — either way, the analysis is there.
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All content represents analytical likelihood assessments only and does not constitute betting advice. Bet at your own risk.
Please note Luana Carolina missed weight, fight is cancelled.