UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev Pre-Fight Analysis

UFC 333 brings two title fights to Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski, 38, defends against Movsar Evloev, who is 20-0 and has won all 10 of his UFC fights by decision. Both men have beaten Diego Lopes. Evloev did it in 2023, and Volkanovski did it twice in five-round title fights.

The co-main is the third meeting between bantamweight champion Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili won the first by unanimous decision in March 2023. Yan won the title from him the same way in December 2025. Both fights went 25 minutes, and the numbers from them look very different.

The card grew this week, with three bouts added to the early prelims for a total of 14. Earlier, Losene Keita replaced the injured Arnold Allen against Aaron Pico. Evloev beat Allen in 2024. Asaf Chopurov makes his UFC debut, and several others arrive with one or two UFC bouts. Where a sample is that thin, this piece describes it rather than quoting rates off it.

Here is how the card reads, first fight to last.

Early Prelims

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari, Women's Strawweight

Iasmin Lucindo is 24, 18-6, and 5-2 in the UFC. Her wins include decisions over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Marina Rodriguez and Angela Hill, and her losses were decisions to Yazmin Jauregui and Amanda Lemos. She last fought in August 2025, 441 days before Saturday.

She lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.80, with a striking defense of 62 percent. She averages 2.28 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55 percent. Across seven UFC bouts she has landed 15 of 27 takedown attempts, and opponents have landed five of the 16 they tried on her.

Nicolle Caliari is 29, 9-4, and 1-2 in the UFC. She lost her first two UFC fights at flyweight, a split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite and a third-round TKO to Carli Judice. She then dropped to strawweight and submitted Shauna Bannon in the third round in May.

She averages 3.38 takedowns per 15 at 29 percent. In three UFC bouts she has tried 31 takedowns and landed eight.

Caliari will keep asking the takedown question, and Lucindo has mostly answered it. The bigger unknown is what 441 days away does to the answer.

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon, Lightweight

Kody Steele is 31, 8-1, and 1-1 in the UFC. He earned his contract on the Contender Series in 2024 with a body shot finish of Chasen Blair. He lost a unanimous decision to Rongzhu in his debut, then submitted Dom Mar Fan in the first round in May. A booking against Gauge Young in August did not happen.

Noah Gugnon, from France, is 26, 10-2, and 1-0 in the UFC. He signed on short notice and submitted Milos Janicic with a rear-naked choke 81 seconds into his debut in August.

Two UFC bouts and one 81-second bout are too little for rates. Steele is 5'9" and Gugnon 5'11", and both have a 71-inch reach. Each man's most recent UFC win came by first-round submission.

Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos, Featherweight

Bolaji Oki, from Belgium, is 30, 10-4, and 2-3 in the UFC. All five of his UFC fights were at lightweight, and this is his first at featherweight. He has lost his last two by knockout or TKO, to Mason Jones in the second round and Manoel Sousa in the third.

He lands 6.42 per minute and absorbs 5.12. In the UFC he has been knocked down three times and has landed one knockdown.

Daniel Santos, from Brazil, is 31, 14-3, and 4-2 in the UFC, with fights at bantamweight, featherweight and catchweight. His wins include second-round knockouts of John Castaneda and JooSang Yoo. In May, Dooho Choi stopped him in the second round.

He lands 5.15 per minute and absorbs 5.38. Across six UFC bouts he has landed 12 of 36 takedown attempts and controlled 30 percent of his cage time.

Oki is 5'10" with a 73-inch reach. Santos is 5'7" with a 67-inch reach. Both men's fights carry heavy traffic in both directions, and Oki's weight cut is new.

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun, Middleweight

Abubakar Vagaev, from Russia, is 33, 25-4, and 1-0 in the UFC. His debut in July was a unanimous decision over Saygid Izagakhmaev at welterweight, and this fight is at middleweight. In that one bout he landed four takedowns from 10 attempts and controlled just over half the fight. One fight is not a rate.

Jacob Malkoun, from Australia, is 31, 10-3, and 6-3 in the UFC. He has won three straight: a second-round TKO of Andre Petroski, then decisions over Torrez Finney in January and Gerald Meerschaert in May.

He averages 5.39 takedowns per 15 at 42 percent and lands 4.23 per minute. Across nine UFC bouts he has landed 36 of 84 takedown attempts and controlled 47 percent of his cage time.

Vagaev is 5'11" and Malkoun 5'9", and both have a 73-inch reach. Both men's UFC work runs through takedowns and control. Who holds position against a wrestler of the same type is the question Saturday answers.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov, Bantamweight

Colby Thicknesse, from Australia, is 27, 9-1, and 2-1 in the UFC. His debut was a decision loss to Aleksandre Topuria, his first pro defeat. He has since won decisions over Josias Musasa and Vince Morales, the latter in May.

He lands 3.24 per minute and absorbs 2.93. Across three UFC bouts he has landed 2 of 28 takedown attempts, and opponents have landed four of the six they tried on him.

Asaf Chopurov is 24, 11-0, and makes his UFC debut. He arrives as the UAE Warriors bantamweight champion, and there are no UFC numbers to read on him yet.

All three of Thicknesse's UFC fights went the distance. Chopurov's undefeated record meets a man who has spent 45 minutes in the UFC cage.

Prelims

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev, Lightweight

Grant Dawson is 32, 24-3-1, and 12-2-1 in the UFC. Both UFC losses were first-round knockouts, to King Green in a 2023 main event and to Manuel Torres in December 2025. He answered the Torres loss with a third-round submission of Mateusz Rebecki in May.

He averages 3.58 takedowns per 15 at 39 percent, with a takedown defense of 66 percent. Across 15 UFC bouts he has landed 41 takedowns and controlled 65 percent of his cage time. Nine of those 15 bouts ended inside the distance.

Nurullo Aliev, from Tajikistan, is 25, 12-0, and 4-0 in the UFC. All four UFC wins went to decision, most recently over Mike Davis in July. He averages 3.48 takedowns per 15 at 51 percent and defends 80 percent. In 60 UFC minutes he has controlled 59 percent of the time.

Both men are 5'10" with a 72-inch reach, and both beat Joe Solecki by decision. Two control wrestlers who both expect to be on top is the whole puzzle here.

Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston, Middleweight

Abus Magomedov, ranked 12th at middleweight, is 36, 29-7-1, and 5-3 in the UFC. His losses came three different ways: a knockout by Sean Strickland in a five-round main event, a decision to Caio Borralho, and a submission by Joe Pyfer. In June he submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk in the first round.

He lands 3.06 per minute and absorbs 3.34. In eight UFC bouts, opponents have tried five takedowns on him and landed none.

Cam Rowston, from Australia, is 31, 15-3, and 3-0 in the UFC. He knocked out Andre Petroski in the first round and Cody Brundage in the second, then beat Robert Bryczek by decision in May. He lands 4.60 per minute and absorbs 2.12.

Both men have a 78-inch reach, and Rowston is an inch taller at 6'3". Rowston has the cleaner record and the shorter résumé. Magomedov has seen ranked opposition, and that is what Rowston is stepping into.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Light Heavyweight

Nikita Krylov, ranked 15th at light heavyweight, is 34, 31-12, and 12-10 in the UFC. Of his 22 UFC fights, 18 ended inside the distance. He has lost three of his last four, all by knockout or TKO, to Dominick Reyes, Bogdan Guskov and Robert Whittaker, with a third-round knockout of Modestas Bukauskas in between.

He lands 4.38 per minute at 54 percent and absorbs 2.75. He has landed six knockdowns in the UFC and absorbed three.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev is 25, 10-0, and 3-0 in the UFC. His three UFC fights lasted 213 seconds combined: a submission in 33 seconds, a submission in 2:52, and a knockout in eight seconds in June. There is no meaningful rate to draw from that.

Krylov is 6'3" with a 77-inch reach, and Yakhyaev is 6'2" with a 78-inch reach. Yakhyaev has never been past the third minute in the UFC. Krylov's fights rarely see the judges.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes, Light Heavyweight

Azamat Murzakanov, ranked seventh at light heavyweight, is 37, 16-1, and 6-1 in the UFC. Five of his six UFC wins came by knockout or TKO, including first-round stoppages of Brendson Ribeiro and Aleksandar Rakic. His first pro loss came in April, a third-round knockout by Paulo Costa.

He lands 4.40 per minute at 56 percent and absorbs 3.20, with a takedown defense of 88 percent. He has landed six knockdowns in the UFC and absorbed one.

Dominick Reyes, ranked eighth, is 36, 16-5, and 10-5 in the UFC. He won a split decision over Johnny Walker on the same April card. Before that, Carlos Ulberg knocked him out in the first round of a five-round main event, and Reyes knocked out Krylov in the first round in April 2025. Six of his UFC wins and four of his UFC losses came by knockout or TKO.

He lands 4.99 per minute and absorbs 3.40. He has landed seven knockdowns in the UFC and absorbed four.

Both men are southpaws. Reyes is 6'4" with a 77-inch reach, and Murzakanov is 5'10" with a 71-inch reach. Murzakanov has to close six inches of reach to land, and Reyes has to keep him there.

Main Card

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita, Featherweight

Aaron Pico, ranked 11th at featherweight, is 30, 14-5, and 1-1 in the UFC. Lerone Murphy knocked him out in the first round of his debut in August 2025. In April he beat Patricio Pitbull by unanimous decision. He has landed eight takedowns in two UFC fights.

Losene Keita, from Belgium, is 28, 17-2, and a former two-division Oktagon champion. He replaced Allen. He is 1-1 in the UFC: a split decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in March on the Evloev vs. Murphy card, then a first-round TKO of Muhammad Naimov on September 5, 49 days before this fight. He has not attempted a takedown in the UFC.

Neither man has enough UFC time for rates. Pico is 5'8" with a 70-inch reach, and Keita is 5'7" with a 72-inch reach. Pico's wrestling against a striker who has not yet been taken down in the UFC is the read.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev, Heavyweight

Alexander Volkov, ranked second at heavyweight, turns 38 on fight night. He is 40-11 and 14-5 in the UFC, and has won his last two by decision, over Jailton Almeida last October and Waldo Cortes Acosta in May.

He lands 4.84 per minute at 57 percent and absorbs 2.90, with a takedown defense of 68 percent. Across 19 UFC bouts, opponents have tried 98 takedowns on him and landed 30.

Rizvan Kuniev, ranked seventh, is 34, 14-3-1, and 2-1 in the UFC. He lost a split decision to Curtis Blaydes in his debut, beat Almeida by unanimous decision in February, and stopped Tyrell Fortune in the third round in July.

He lands 4.32 per minute and absorbs 2.22. He has not attempted a takedown in the UFC, and opponents have landed two of their 25 attempts on him.

Both men beat Almeida, and both lost decisions to Blaydes. Volkov is 6'7" with an 80-inch reach. Kuniev is 6'4" with a 76-inch reach. Kuniev has to find a way inside four inches of reach.

Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov, Flyweight

Lone'er Kavanagh, ranked sixth at flyweight, is 27, 10-2, and 3-2 in the UFC. The Londoner earned his contract on the Contender Series in 2024. In February he beat Brandon Moreno by unanimous decision over five rounds in a main event. In July, Brandon Royval submitted him with a rear-naked choke in the third round.

He lands 4.13 per minute and absorbs 3.94, with a takedown defense of 82 percent.

Ramazan Temirov, from Uzbekistan, is ranked 10th. He is 29, 20-3, and 3-0 in the UFC, with first-round knockouts of CJ Vergara and Steve Erceg and a decision over Charles Johnson. The Erceg knockout came in Abu Dhabi in July. He lands 4.73 per minute and absorbs 3.65. Across three UFC bouts he has landed five knockdowns.

Charles Johnson knocked Kavanagh out in the second round in August 2025. Temirov beat Johnson on the cards. Kavanagh is 5'6" with a 67-inch reach, and Temirov is 5'4" with a 63-inch reach. Temirov's power against Kavanagh's length is the tension.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili, Bantamweight Title

Petr Yan is 33, 20-5, and 12-4 in the UFC. Merab Dvalishvili, ranked first, is 35, 21-5, and 14-3 in the UFC. Dvalishvili won 12 of his 14 UFC fights by decision. He fought four times in 2025, three title defenses and then the loss to Yan, and this is his first fight since.

Dvalishvili averages 5.97 takedowns per 15 minutes at 35 percent. Yan's takedown defense is 86 percent, and he lands 5.16 per minute.

The two fights between them tell the story.

In March 2023, Dvalishvili landed 147 significant strikes to Yan's 75, completed 11 of 49 takedown attempts, and held 6:53 of control time.

In December 2025, Dvalishvili still tried 29 takedowns but completed two. Yan landed 139 significant strikes on 230 attempts, while Dvalishvili landed 134 on 383. Yan also completed five of nine takedown attempts of his own. Dvalishvili's control time fell to 5:12.

Neither fight had a knockdown. Whether Dvalishvili can get his takedown completions back toward the first fight, or whether the second fight showed how this matchup works now, is what five more rounds settle.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev, Featherweight Title

Alexander Volkanovski is 38, 28-4, and 15-3 in the UFC. All three UFC losses came in title fights, two of them at lightweight against Islam Makhachev and one to Ilia Topuria. Since the Topuria loss he has beaten Lopes twice by unanimous decision, in April 2025 and January 2026.

He lands 5.99 per minute at 57 percent and absorbs 3.31, with a takedown defense of 68 percent. Across 18 UFC bouts, opponents have landed 14 of their 45 takedown attempts on him. Seven of those bouts ended inside the distance.

Movsar Evloev, ranked first, is 32, 20-0, and 10-0 in the UFC. Every UFC win went to decision, including Lopes in 2023, Allen in 2024, Aljamain Sterling in December 2024, and Lerone Murphy by majority decision over five rounds in March.

He averages 4.78 takedowns per 15 at 52 percent and lands 3.91 per minute. Across 160 UFC minutes he has landed 51 of 97 takedown attempts and controlled 36 percent of his cage time. He has not landed or absorbed a knockdown in the UFC.

Evloev is 5'7" with a 72-inch reach. Volkanovski is 5'6" with a 71-inch reach. Volkanovski has the striking volume. Evloev has never lost, and he has never needed a finish to win. Saturday tests which of those holds over 25 minutes.

If you want to see the predictions for the card, visit mmafightadvisor.com/predictions, and for head to head comparisons on every fighter on it, visit mmafightadvisor.com/stats.