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Analysis midweek, calls at lock, results after.
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Sep 23, 2026
UFC Vegas 121: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Pre-Fight Analysis
Twelve bouts at the APEX, four debutants, two Ultimate Fighter finals, and seven fighters returning from more than a year away. A look at what the numbers say about every fight on the card.
Sep 16, 2026
UFC 331: Full Card Analysis, Van vs. Pantoja 2
Joshua Van and Alexandre Pantoja meet again after a first fight that lasted twenty-six seconds. A bout-by-bout look at all twelve fights in Los Angeles, including where the numbers hold up and where the sample is too thin to trust.
Sep 9, 2026
Noche UFC: Full Card Analysis, Silva vs. Delgado
Thirteen bouts in Glendale, headlined by a five round featherweight main event with a short notice replacement. A fight by fight look at what the numbers show, and where the sample is too thin to say much.
Sep 3, 2026
UFC Paris: Full Card Analysis, Hooker vs. Parnasse
Fourteen bouts at Accor Arena, seven promotional debutants, and a ranked veteran standing in front of a French headliner making his UFC debut. Here is the model's read on every fight on the card.
Sep 2, 2026
UFC finish rates by division: why the same number means different things
A 60 percent finish rate is exceptional at strawweight and below average at light heavyweight. Finish rates for all eleven active UFC weight classes, why the women's divisions cannot be ranked, and why heavyweight's number is falling.
Aug 27, 2026
UFC Shanghai: Full Card Analysis, Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Thirteen fights in Shanghai, eight fighters who have never set foot in the Octagon, and a main event where both men beat the same opponent inside eight months. Here is how the model reads all of it.
Aug 20, 2026
UFC Sacramento: Full Card Analysis, Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Thirteen fights in Sacramento, four fighters with no Octagon record between them, and two of the firmest reads on the card sitting nowhere near the main event. Here is how the model sees all of it.
Aug 13, 2026
UFC 330: Full Card Analysis, Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Two titles, twelve fights, and a Philadelphia card that survived three withdrawals. Here is how the model reads every bout, first fight to last.
Aug 6, 2026
UFC Vegas 120: Full Card Analysis, Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Twelve fights in Las Vegas, a retirement in the middle of the main card, and a lightweight main event where both arguments hold up.
Aug 1, 2026
UFC Belgrade: Full Card Analysis — Medić vs. Rodriguez
Serbia hosts its first UFC event, and the model backs the local fighters in six of nine bouts. The three exceptions are where this card gets interesting.
Jul 25, 2026
UFC Abu Dhabi: The Model's Full Card Breakdown for Ankalaev vs. Guskov
A short notice finisher, three fighters from one Moscow gym, and a former champion trying to answer his first loss. This card runs deeper than the co-main slot.
Jul 17, 2026
UFC Oklahoma City: Breaking Down Du Plessis vs. Usman
A former champion looks to reclaim his crown, a legend tests a new division, and the undercard is stacked with undefeated prospects who have never seen round three.
Jul 10, 2026
UFC 329: The Model's Full Card Breakdown
Thirteen years, two different fighters, and the most loaded International Fight Week card in a long time
Jun 27, 2026
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 280: FIZIEV VS. TORRES The Model's Full Card Picks: Baku, Azerbaijan | June 27, 2026
Thirteen fights, a freshly crowned champion reshaping the lightweight picture, and a card built for a city that has been waiting for this moment.
Jun 19, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi : The Model's Full Card Breakdown
A flyweight title eliminator headlining a card loaded with roster consequences, a debut that could turn heads, and one ranked women's bantamweight fight where the model is going against the grain.
Jun 12, 2026
UFC FREEDOM 250: THE MOST HISTORIC CARD IN UFC HISTORY
Seven fights. Two titles. The South Lawn of the White House. The model has the full card.
Jun 5, 2026
UFC Vegas 118: The Model's Read on Muhammad vs. Bonfim, Top to Bottom
A chalky Apex card of finish-heavy mismatches and rising prospects, topped by a welterweight headliner that lands as close to a coin flip as it gets.
May 29, 2026
The Model Goes to Macau for UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
A card built on debutants, reset stories, and one heavyweight read the model is leaning into hard.
May 20, 2026
The Brier score is what accuracy wishes it were
A 1950 weather-forecast metric that still does a better job grading probabilities than most sports conversations do
May 15, 2026
Allen, Costa, and the Quiet Math of UFC Vegas 117
A 13-fight card built on stylistic puzzles, late-notice mismatches, and a featherweight main event the model lands on by a hair.
May 8, 2026
UFC 328: WHERE THE MODEL LANDS
Two title fights anchor a stacked Newark card built on grappler-versus-striker matchups
May 1, 2026
UFC Perth: The Model Reads a Polarized Card
Della Maddalena vs. Prates is a true toss-up. Most of what comes before it isn't.
Apr 25, 2026
UFC FIGHT NIGHT: STERLING VS. ZALAL — THE MODEL'S FULL CARD ANALYSIS
Thirteen fights at the Meta APEX on Saturday night, with the featherweight main event carrying real title implications and a women’s bantamweight co-main that could decide the next challenger. Below those two bouts, the card thins into…
Apr 17, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, Full Card Breakdown
Saturday, April 18, 2026 | Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg | Paramount+
Apr 10, 2026
MMA FIGHT ADVISOR — UFC 327: PROCHAZKA vs. ULBERG
Full Card Analytical Breakdown
Apr 3, 2026
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 272: MOICANO VS. DUNCAN
The MMA Fight Advisor Analytical Preview
Apr 1, 2026
The Numbers — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (Main Card)
Statistical preview for every main card fight on the April 4 card. Physical profiles, striking and grappling data, win distribution, and recent form. No picks. No analysis. Just the numbers.
Apr 1, 2026
The Numbers — UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan (Prelims)
Statistical preview for every prelim fight on the April 4 card. Physical profiles, striking and grappling data, win distribution, and recent form. No picks. No analysis. Just the numbers.
Mar 27, 2026
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 271: ADESANYA VS. PYFER
The MMA Fight Advisor Analytical Preview
Mar 20, 2026
UFC Fight Night · Evloev vs. Murphy Full Card Model Picks
Our picks for the most likely winner for the entire card in one easy infographic (full analysis article coming soon)
Mar 20, 2026
UFC London Full Card Analysis: Where the Model Lands on Every Fight | Evloev vs. Murphy
Fourteen fights. One historic main event. And one call the model is making against the market.
Mar 13, 2026
UFC Vegas 114 Emmett vs. Vallejos Intelligence Brief: Full Card Picks, Analysis and Model Reads
14 fights. One dominant narrative. The model's complete read on every bout, from early prelims to the most lopsided age gap in UFC main event history.
Mar 10, 2026
Anthony Smith, the most important MMA fighter of all time?
A completely serious investigation into a deeply unserious question
Mar 5, 2026
UFC 326 Intelligence Brief: Full Card Picks, Analysis and Model Reads
MMA Fight Advisor March 7, 2026 | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Feb 18, 2026
UFC Houston Executive Report: Strickland vs. Hernandez Tactical Preview
Efficiency meets Exhaustion in a Middleweight Title Eliminator.