UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Pre-Fight Analysis

UFC 334 brings two title fights to Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Ciryl Gane, 36, makes his first defense of the undisputed heavyweight title against Josh Hokit, who is 10-0 and has four UFC fights. Gane won interim gold by stopping Alex Pereira in June and was elevated when Tom Aspinall vacated the belt in September. Hokit won on the same card, stopping Derrick Lewis in the second round. Both men have now beaten Lewis.

The co-main is Kayla Harrison against Amanda Nunes for the women's bantamweight title, a fight first booked for January before Harrison needed neck surgery. Nunes has not fought since June 2023, 1,253 days before Saturday. Harrison has not fought in 525. Both have beaten Holly Holm and Julianna Peña, and the two are former teammates at American Top Team.

The card has been rebuilt in places. Alatengheili replaced the injured Adrian Yanez against Juan Diaz on eight days' notice, Cesar Almeida replaced Baisangur Susurkaev against Donte Johnson, and a lightweight bout between Nazim Sadykhov and Jefferson Nascimento fell off when both men withdrew. Stephen Thompson fights for the last time, and Jim Miller makes his 48th UFC walk. Samuel Sanches debuts, and several others arrive with one to three UFC bouts. Where a sample is that thin, this piece describes it rather than quoting rates off it.

Here is how the card reads, first fight to last.

Early Prelims

Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches, Lightweight

Evan Elder is 29, 10-2, and 3-2 in the UFC. He lost his first two UFC fights, a decision to Preston Parsons and a doctor's stoppage against Nazim Sadykhov, then won three straight: a decision over Genaro Valdez, a second-round submission of Darrius Flowers and a decision over Gauge Young in April 2025. He has not fought since. Saturday comes 567 days after that win.

He fights out of a switch stance and lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute, absorbing 4.94. His takedown defense is the soft spot. Opponents have landed six of the 10 takedowns they have tried on him.

Samuel Sanches is 23, 11-1, and makes his UFC debut. He earned his contract with a first-round knockout of Chasen Blair on the Contender Series in September 2025, then withdrew from a March booking against Tofiq Musayev. He has no UFC fight data to read.

The question is what a year and a half away does to Elder's timing against a debutant whose record runs mostly through knockouts.

Alatengheili vs. Juan Diaz, Bantamweight

Juan Diaz is 28, 16-1-1, and riding nine straight wins. He earned his contract with a spinning back elbow knockout on the Contender Series, then submitted Malcolm Wellmaker with a rear naked choke in the second round of his UFC debut in May. That single fight lasted a little over nine minutes, so there is nothing in his rates to lean on yet.

Alatengheili is 34, 18-10-2, and 6-3-1 in the UFC. He took this fight on eight days' notice, 49 days after a split decision over John Castaneda in September. His last five results alternate win, loss, win, loss, win.

He is a wrestler first. He averages 1.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at 42 percent accuracy, and he lands 2.71 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.96. Eight of his 10 UFC fights went to the judges.

Diaz is about three inches taller with about three inches more reach. The fight turns on whether Alatengheili can drag it into the long, grinding decisions he is used to, or whether Diaz finds the finish he has been finding.

Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita, Women's Bantamweight

Bia Mesquita is 35, 8-0, and a 10-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion. All three of her UFC wins came by submission: Irina Alekseeva in the second round, Montse Rendon in the first and Melissa Mullins by armbar in the first in June. Her three UFC fights add up to about 12 and a half minutes, and she has spent more than half of that time in control.

Macy Chiasson is 35, 11-6, and 8-6 in the UFC, ranked No. 9 to Mesquita's No. 11. She has lost three straight, all by unanimous decision, to Ketlen Vieira at featherweight, then Yana Santos and Ailin Perez at bantamweight.

The size difference is real. Chiasson stands about seven inches taller with five inches more reach. She lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and defends 62 percent of takedowns.

Mesquita's UFC fights have been short and have ended on the mat. Chiasson's frame and her takedown defense are the test of whether that continues.

Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa, Lightweight

Jared Gordon is 38, from Queens, and 9-8 with one no contest in the UFC. His last appearance at Madison Square Garden was a first-round knockout of Mark Madsen in November 2023. He is 1-3 since: a split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast, a first-round knockout of Thiago Moises, a third-round stoppage loss to Rafa Garcia, and a guillotine loss to Jim Miller in May.

Melquizael Costa is 30, 26-8, and 7-3 in the UFC. He won six straight at featherweight, the last two by first-round knockout of Morgan Charriere and Dan Ige, before Arnold Allen beat him over five rounds in May. He returns to lightweight, where his two earlier UFC fights were losses, a submission to Moises and a knockout by Steve Garcia, both in 2023.

Gordon lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.11. Costa lands 4.29 and absorbs 3.19.

Moises is the shared reference point. He submitted Costa at this weight, and Gordon knocked him out last year. The question is whether Costa's featherweight form carries up 10 pounds.

Prelims

Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida, Middleweight

Donte Johnson is 27, 9-0, and 3-0 in the UFC. He earned his contract at heavyweight on the Contender Series, dropped to middleweight, and has won by submission, split decision and, in August, a first-round knockout of Eric McConico. Three fights is a small window, so his rates stay off the page.

Cesar Almeida is 38, a former kickboxer, and 3-3 in the UFC. He replaced the withdrawn Baisangur Susurkaev. He won three of his first four UFC fights, including a knockout of Abdul Razak Alhassan, then lost a decision to Cezary Oleksiejczuk and a first-round knockout to Damian Pinas in July.

Almeida lands 3.73 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent accuracy. Opponents have landed 17 of the 33 takedowns they have tried on him.

Johnson has shown he can win on the mat and on the feet. Almeida's path runs through keeping it standing, and his takedown defense has not held up well enough to count on that.

Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney, Lightweight

Jim Miller is 43 and makes his 48th UFC appearance. He is 28-18 with one no contest in the Octagon, and 14 of those wins came by submission. The latest was a first-round guillotine of Jared Gordon in May. He averages 1.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Terrance McKinney is 32, 18-9, and 8-6 in the UFC. None of his 14 UFC fights has gone to a decision. He has five knockout wins, three submission wins, four knockout losses and two submission losses, and all 14 fights together add up to about 34 minutes. His last eight all ended in the first round, and he went 5-3 across them. The latest was a first-round loss to King Green in July. Green has beaten Miller too, by decision in 2024.

McKinney comes out fast and either finishes or gets caught. Miller has spent two decades catching people who come out fast. The opening minutes should settle it one way or the other.

Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan, Lightweight

Drew Dober is 38, 29-15 with one no contest, and 15-11 with one no contest in the UFC. Of his 15 UFC wins, 11 came by knockout. He comes in on two straight stoppages, Kyle Prepolec in the third round and Michael Johnson in the second at UFC 326.

Chris Duncan is 33, 15-3, and 6-2 in the UFC. Three of his six UFC wins came by submission, including an anaconda choke of Terrance McKinney in December, and he has no knockout wins in the UFC. Both of his losses were submissions, the latest a rear naked choke from Renato Moicano in April, in his first main event.

Dober lands 4.48 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.33. Duncan lands 4.83, absorbs 4.57 and averages 2.92 takedowns per 15 minutes.

They share two opponents. Manuel Torres beat both of them in the first round, and Moicano beat both. The matchup is Dober's power against Duncan's chokes, and whichever man imposes his range first.

Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke, Welterweight

Stephen Thompson is 43, 17-9-1, and fights for the last time. He has lost three straight: a submission to Shavkat Rakhmonov, a third-round knockout by Joaquin Buckley and a split decision to Gabriel Bonfim in July 2025, 490 days before Saturday. His last win was the corner stoppage of Kevin Holland in December 2022. Holland fights two bouts later on this card.

Charles Radtke is 36, 12-5, and 5-2 in the UFC. His last two wins came through grappling, a third-round submission of Daniel Frunza and a decision over Francisco Prado in April. He has spent more than half of his UFC fight time in control. Both of his UFC losses were knockouts, to Carlos Prates and Mike Malott.

Thompson's control time sits at 6 percent, and opponents have landed 29 of the 79 takedowns they have tried on him. Radtke averages 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Radtke's recent wins came on the mat, and both of his losses came on the feet. The fight comes down to which version of it Thompson's last walk turns into.

Main Card

Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule, Flyweight

Bilal Hasan is 25, 10-0 with one no contest, and makes his second UFC appearance. He won his debut in August with a second-round knockout of Nilson Rojas, 18 days after earning his contract on the Contender Series. One fight of under eight minutes is all there is to go on.

Luis Gurule is 32, 11-4, and 1-4 in the UFC. His one UFC win was a decision over Daniel Barez in May. Two weeks later he took a short-notice fight at bantamweight and was submitted by Rei Tsuruya in the first round. His other losses were decisions to Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria and a knockout by Ode Osbourne.

Gurule lands 5.44 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.35. Hasan has six inches of reach on him.

Three of Gurule's five UFC fights went the distance. Hasan's record runs on finishes, and Gurule's volume and durability are what stand between him and another one.

Uroš Medić vs. Kevin Holland, Welterweight

Uroš Medić is 33, 14-3, and 8-3 in the UFC, ranked No. 12. All eight of his UFC wins came by knockout, and the last four came in the first round: Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov, Geoff Neal and Daniel Rodriguez, the last in 30 seconds in Belgrade in August. His 11 UFC fights average under four minutes. His losses were a first-round knockout and two submissions.

Kevin Holland is 34, 29-15 with one no contest, and 16-12 with one no contest in the UFC, ranked No. 15. He has fought at middleweight and welterweight and lost to Rodriguez by decision last year. He beat Randy Brown by decision in April after two straight losses. Six of his UFC wins came by submission.

Medić lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent accuracy and absorbs 3.40. Holland lands 4.24 and absorbs 3.21. Holland has 10 inches of reach on him.

Rodriguez is the common opponent. Medić needed 30 seconds with him. Holland lost to him over 15 minutes. Holland's path runs through his length and his submissions, and through surviving the opening minutes against a man who rarely needs more than that.

Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui, Middleweight

Caio Borralho is 33, 18-2 with one no contest, and 8-1 in the UFC, ranked No. 5. His one UFC loss was a five-round decision to Nassourdine Imavov in September 2025. He rebounded with a decision over Reinier de Ridder in March, then had surgery that took him off a booking against Joe Pyfer. Saturday comes 252 days after that last win.

He is a southpaw who lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 2.61 and defends 76 percent of takedowns. Six of his eight UFC wins went to decision, and he has landed 10 of his 22 UFC takedown attempts.

Yousri Belgaroui is 34, 11-3, and 3-0 in the UFC, all three by knockout. A former kickboxer, he stopped Azamat Bekoev and Mansur Abdul-Malik in the third round, then Djorden Santos in the first at Noche UFC in September after his original opponent withdrew. At 6 feet 6, he is five inches taller than Borralho with four inches more reach. Opponents have landed seven of 16 takedowns on him in three fights.

Borralho has won by grinding opponents through 15 or 25 minutes. Belgaroui has finished everyone in front of him so far. The question is whether Borralho's takedowns get him past the length.

Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes, Women's Bantamweight Title

Kayla Harrison is 36, a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist, 19-1, and 3-0 in the UFC. She submitted Holly Holm in the second round, beat Ketlen Vieira by decision, and won the title with a second-round kimura of Julianna Peña at UFC 316 in June 2025. She then withdrew from this fight in January for neck surgery.

Her three UFC fights add up to about 32 minutes. She has spent close to 60 percent of that time in control and absorbed 35 significant strikes in total. She averages 2.84 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Amanda Nunes is 38, 23-5, and 16-2 in the UFC. She retired after a decision over Irene Aldana in June 2023, 1,253 days before Saturday. She has eight knockdowns in her 18 UFC fights and has never been knocked down in the UFC. She averages 2.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 82 percent.

The shared opponents line up neatly. Nunes knocked out Holm in the first round in 2019, and Harrison submitted her. Peña submitted Nunes in 2021 before Nunes won the rematch by decision, and Harrison submitted Peña. Nunes has the three inches of reach.

Nunes has been booked for five rounds 12 times in the UFC. Harrison has been booked for five once, and finished it in the second. The question is whether Harrison gets her top position, or whether Nunes, after more than three years away, keeps it standing long enough for her hands to matter.

Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit, Heavyweight Title

Ciryl Gane is 36, 14-2 with one no contest, and 11-2 with one no contest in the UFC. His losses were a decision to Francis Ngannou and a submission by Jon Jones, both in title fights. He has never lost a UFC fight by knockout. His no contest came against Aspinall in October 2025, when an accidental eye poke ended it in the first round. He then stopped Pereira in the second round in June.

He stands 6 feet 4, lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute at 61 percent accuracy, and absorbs 2.31. He has spent less than 10 percent of his UFC fight time in control, and opponents have landed nine of 17 takedowns on him.

Josh Hokit is 29, 10-0, and 4-0 in the UFC. He is a former Division I wrestler who logged NFL practice squad reps. He knocked out Max Gimenis in his debut 53 weeks ago, then Denzel Freeman, beat Curtis Blaydes by decision in April and stopped Lewis in June. His four UFC fights add up to about 30 minutes. In them he has landed 309 significant strikes, three knockdowns and three of six takedown attempts.

Gane has eight inches of reach on him. Lewis is the shared opponent: Gane stopped him in the third round for interim gold in 2021, and Hokit stopped him in the second.

Then there are the extra rounds. All four of Hokit's UFC fights were scheduled for three. Gane has been booked for five rounds nine times, and three went the full 25 minutes. If Hokit's pressure and wrestling do not get to Gane early, the championship rounds are new ground for him.

If you want to see the predictions for the card, visit mmafightadvisor.com/predictions, and for head to head comparisons on every fighter on it, visit mmafightadvisor.com/stats.