UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker Pre-Fight Analysis

Updated November 4: Carlos Calderon replaces the injured Lucas Brennan against Austin Bashi, and the UFC reshuffled the main card and prelims. The sections below follow the updated order.

There are 14 fights at the Meta APEX on Saturday, and the top of the card was rebuilt nine days out. Sean Brady withdrew from his welterweight main event against Gabriel Bonfim, no replacement was found for Bonfim in time, and the UFC booked a heavyweight headliner instead: Waldo Cortes Acosta against Johnny Walker, both on short notice. Further down, Thomas Petersen stepped in for Alvin Hines against debuting Gabriel Lorenço, and Andre Petroski's original opponent pulled out last week. Lucas Brennan tore his ACL, and Carlos Calderon steps in against Austin Bashi on four days' notice.

The second thing that shapes the card is how little of it has been seen inside the Octagon. Eight fighters have one UFC bout each. Lorenço, Marcos Degli and Calderon make their debuts, and Keiichiro Nakamura makes his first appearance on the roster after winning Road to UFC. Two more are coming back from long absences: Jonny Parsons has not fought in 1,204 days, Wellington Turman in 1,071.

The card is tied to itself in two places. Petroski beat Turman by decision at UFC 281. Cortes Acosta beat Petersen for the LFA heavyweight title in 2022.

The main event is five rounds. Walker has been booked for five rounds four times in the UFC. Cortes Acosta has never been scheduled past three.

Here is how the card reads, first fight to last.

Jonny Parsons vs. José Souza

Parsons won his UFC debut in July 2023, finishing Danny Roberts in the closing seconds of the second round. He has not fought since. He has put the gap down to recurring hip-flexor and groin problems, and he is 35 now.

Souza is 24 and 9-1. He won his debut in May by split decision over Ding Meng, a fight that could have been scored either way. He is also much the longer man here, standing 190 centimeters with a 201 centimeter reach to Parsons' 175 and 175, a gap of roughly 10 inches of reach.

Each man has 15 minutes or less of UFC fight time, so there is nothing to read in their rates. The question is simpler: what Parsons looks like after more than three years away, against someone 11 years younger who can hold him at range.

Seokhyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman

Ko is 33, a southpaw with a judo and sambo base, and he has dropped the "Korean Tyson" nickname for "Technical," which fits how he fights. He averages 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52 percent accuracy. He has spent 56.0 percent of his UFC fight time in control. All three of his UFC fights went to decision, the last a loss to Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani in July.

Turman has not fought since December 2023. A return in Abu Dhabi this summer fell through the day before, when Islam Dulatov withdrew with an illness. He defends 42 percent of takedowns and absorbs 4.17 significant strikes per minute.

He has lost three straight, to Petroski, Randy Brown and Jared Gooden, and he is 3-6 in the UFC.

Ko's game is built on taking people down and keeping them there. Turman's takedown defense has been the weak point of his UFC run, and he has had 1,071 days away to work on it.

Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Andre Petroski

Kondratavičius is 27 and 9-1. He won his UFC debut in March by unanimous decision over Antonio Trocoli, his fourth straight win. That is one fight of UFC data, so his rates are not worth quoting yet.

Petroski is 35 and was booked against Azamat Bekoev last weekend until Bekoev withdrew. He is a wrestler, averaging 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes at 52 percent accuracy, with 86 percent takedown defense. He has spent 39.1 percent of his UFC fight time in control.

He is also on a three-fight skid: a decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan, then stoppages by Cam Rowston and Cody Brundage. Four of his five UFC losses came by KO/TKO.

Petroski's path is clear from his numbers. Kondratavičius has one fight to show what happens when someone takes that path against him.

Austin Bashi vs. Carlos Calderon

This is the late change. Lucas Brennan tore his ACL in the final weeks of camp, and Carlos Calderon takes the fight on four days' notice to make his UFC debut.

Bashi is 25 and 14-2, a former regional bantamweight champion who earned his contract with a submission on the Contender Series. His UFC run has been uneven at 1-2. He lost a decision to Christian Rodriguez in his debut, submitted John Yannis in the first round, then lost a unanimous decision to Jose Delgado in July. Both UFC losses went the distance.

Calderon is 30 and 11-4. His own Contender Series shot in 2024 ended in a second-round submission loss to Alberto Montes. He went back to Fury FC, won its featherweight title in May with a fourth-round rear naked choke of UFC veteran Damon Jackson, and defended it with a five-round decision over Lorram Esteves on October 2.

Short notice does not mean out of shape here. Calderon fought 36 days ago and has gone past the third round in each of his last two fights. He is also about five inches taller than Bashi, and he arrives with no UFC data at all. Whether Bashi can get a fight like this to the floor on his terms is the question.

Jose Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov

Both men won their debuts, in opposite ways. Delano went the full 15 minutes with Robert Ruchała in April and won a unanimous decision, his fifth straight win. He did not land a takedown in five attempts, and he stopped all three tried against him.

Magomedov needed 77 seconds. He submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan with a Scottish twister in June, which took him to 11-0 with every win a finish.

That is the tension. Delano is 17-3 and has shown he can go 15 minutes in the UFC. Magomedov has never been to a decision. Both samples are one fight, so what each man does after the first few minutes is still unknown.

Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes

Both are ranked, Silva at No. 11 and Fernandes at No. 14, and both are trying to steady things. Silva won her first three UFC fights and has lost three of four since, the last two by decision to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Fernandes won three straight, including a submission of Wang Cong, before Casey O'Neill stopped her in the first round in March.

The styles are clear. Silva is a grappler, averaging 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50 percent accuracy and 1.60 submission attempts. Fernandes, a southpaw, works more at range, landing 3.51 significant strikes per minute, and she defends 68 percent of takedowns.

There are soft spots on both sides. Fernandes absorbs 5.31 significant strikes per minute. Silva defends 26 percent of takedowns. Opponents have landed 12 of 17 attempts against her in the UFC.

Three of Silva's five UFC wins are submissions, and all three of her UFC losses went to the judges. If she gets this to the floor, the record says she has a way to end it. If she does not, her losses tell the rest.

Gabriel Lorenço vs. Thomas Petersen

Lorenço is 27 and debuts two months after knocking out Charlie Cleveland on the Contender Series. UFC.com has him on eight straight wins, the last four by first-round finish. There is no UFC data on him.

Petersen took this fight on short notice after Alvin Hines withdrew. He is a wrestler first, averaging 2.95 takedowns per 15 minutes at 42 percent accuracy, and he defends 87 percent of takedowns. He has spent 38.7 percent of his UFC fight time in control.

His record has a rhythm to it. His seven UFC results have alternated win and loss the whole way through, and his last fight was a first-round submission loss to Valter Walker in July. All three of his UFC wins went to decision. Two of his four losses came by KO/TKO.

Lorenço's finishes all came early. Petersen's wins all came late. Which version of the fight shows up is the question the first round answers.

Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid

Nakamura won the Road to UFC featherweight tournament in January, rallying to stop Sebastian Szalay in the third round. It was his eighth straight win. Because that was a tournament bout, this is his first fight on the UFC roster, and there is no roster data on him at all.

Schmid's UFC career so far is 2:47 long. He took his debut on short notice in May and was stopped by Marwan Rahiki in the first round. He trains at City Kickboxing, is 25, and gets a full camp this time.

Neither man has a UFC sample worth reading. Both of their most recent fights ended by strikes. Nakamura is a southpaw who finished his way through a tournament. Schmid is the one who has seen the UFC Octagon, briefly.

Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli

Raposo opened his UFC career with two split-decision losses, then turned it around with decisions over Azat Maksum and Allan Nascimento. All four of his UFC fights went the full 15 minutes.

He works at a low volume, landing 1.91 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 2.92, with 60 percent striking defense. He averages 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Degli is a former LFA champion who earned his contract in September by submitting Paris Moran in the second round on the Contender Series. UFC.com has him on a 13-fight winning streak. He has no UFC fight data yet.

Raposo's fights are close and long. Degli arrives with finishing form from outside the UFC. Whether Raposo can drag a debutant into another 15-minute fight is the question.

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević

Cachoeira makes her 15th walk into the Octagon on a three-fight skid, losses to Joselyne Edwards, Klaudia Sygula and Chelsea Chandler. She is 5-9 in the UFC, and the shape of that record is consistent. Four of her five wins came by KO/TKO. Five of her nine losses came by submission.

She fights in exchanges. She lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 7.45, with 45 percent striking defense. She spends very little time in control, 2.4 percent of her UFC fight time.

Milošević is 30 and has won nine straight since losing her pro debut. Her UFC debut in Belgrade in August lasted 3:41, ending with body shots against Hailey Cowan. That is the entire UFC sample. Cachoeira, at 38, is the veteran test, and the record says her fights tend to be decided by whoever lands first or whoever gets to the ground.

Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando

Elekana took his UFC debut on short notice against Bogdan Guskov and was submitted. He has won three straight since, two by submission, most recently Junior Tafa at UFC 325 in January. He lands 2.71 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.59. No opponent has tried to take him down in four UFC bouts.

Fernando's debut at UFC 330 in August was one-sided. He battered Rafael Tobias for two rounds and stopped him 70 seconds into the third, his fifth straight win and third straight stoppage. It is one fight, so his rates are not meaningful yet.

Fernando has about three inches of reach on Elekana, 203 centimeters to 196. Elekana's wins come on the ground. Fernando's debut came on the feet, and in it he did not attempt a takedown. Where this fight is contested is the matchup.

Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith

There are 16 years between them. Grant is 40 and makes his 17th UFC appearance. He has won three of his last four, most recently a decision over Adrian Luna Martinetti in April. He is a volume fighter, landing 5.58 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 4.04, and he defends 65 percent of takedowns.

Smith is 24, 3-0 in the UFC and has won eight straight. He has finished two of those three UFC fights, one by KO/TKO against Toshiomi Kazama and one by submission against SuYoung You.

Grant is hard to stop. None of his seven UFC losses came by KO/TKO, and four were submissions.

Smith has shown he can finish both ways. Grant has spent more than a decade making opponents go long. This is the kind of veteran test that tells you where a prospect actually is.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba

Both of them lost their most recent title shots by five-round decision: Suarez to Zhang Weili in February 2025, Jandiroba to Mackenzie Dern in October 2025. Both have won since. They are ranked No. 2 and No. 3, and this fight has fallen through twice before.

Suarez is 9-1 in the UFC, and the one loss is the Zhang fight. Five of her nine UFC wins are submissions. She averages 4.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. She has spent 59.6 percent of her UFC fight time in control.

Jandiroba is 38 and 9-4 in the UFC. She averages 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes at 39 percent accuracy and 1.40 submission attempts, and she defends 72 percent of takedowns. Five of her nine UFC wins went to decision.

This is grappler against grappler. Opponents have attempted seven takedowns on Suarez across 10 UFC fights. How she handles someone who wants the same position is something her record has not had to show often.

Waldo Cortes Acosta vs. Johnny Walker

Cortes Acosta is 35 and came into the year on a run, then beat Derrick Lewis in January. He has lost decisions to Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes since. He is 10-4 in the UFC, ranked No. 6 by the media and No. 8 in the Meta rankings.

Walker is 34 and returns 35 days after his heavyweight debut, a first-round knee that stopped Mick Parkin at UFC 332. Before that, he lost a split decision to Dominick Reyes at light heavyweight.

On the feet, Cortes Acosta is the busier striker, landing 5.03 significant strikes per minute to Walker's 3.98. He absorbs 3.44 to Walker's 2.99, and his striking defense is 55 percent to Walker's 45. Walker is two inches taller and has about four inches of reach on him, 208 centimeters to 198.

The finishing records point in different directions. Seven of Walker's nine UFC wins came by KO/TKO, and four of his seven losses did too. Cortes Acosta has five KO/TKO wins in the UFC, and all four of his losses went to the judges. In 14 UFC fights he has never been knocked down. Walker has been knocked down seven times in 17.

Then there are the extra rounds. Walker has been booked for five rounds four times, and one of those went the full 25 minutes. Cortes Acosta has never been scheduled past three. If Walker does not land early, the championship rounds are new ground for both of them.

If you want to see the predictions for the card, visit mmafightadvisor.com/predictions, and for head to head comparisons on every fighter on it, visit mmafightadvisor.com/stats.