UFC Oklahoma City: Breaking Down Du Plessis vs. Usman

The UFC returns to Oklahoma City for the first time in nine years, and the card carries a real weight-room's worth of stakes at the top alongside one of the deepest prospect undercards of the year.

Austin Bashi opens the night against Jose Miguel Delgado in a featherweight bout that reads as close to a coin flip as this card gets. Delgado is the more tested fighter, 3-1 through his first four UFC starts, most recently grinding out a split-decision win over Andre Fili after working through a rough patch in his own head. Bashi is chasing his second straight win following a first-round finish of John Yannis. The model lands on Bashi here, though the margin is thin enough that this shouldn't be read as a confident call.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani and Seokhyeon Ko share a built-in reference point: both men have already beaten Phil Rowe. Lebosnoyani is 10-2 for his career with eight finishes in ten wins, most recently a split decision over Rowe himself in his UFC debut. Ko is 13-2 and arrives off a win over Oban Elliott in Baku. The bout only exists because an injury scrapped a different welterweight pairing entirely and this one was pieced together about a week out. Ko gets the nod from the model.

Levi Rodrigues Jr. makes his promotional debut against Felipe Franco with a finish in every professional win on his record, though one of those, over Freddy Vidal, was later overturned on a failed drug test, worth saying plainly rather than glossing over. Franco returns to his more natural light heavyweight frame after a competitive decision loss at a higher weight in London back in March. Rodrigues Jr. is the pick.

Alden Coria carries a 12-3 record with one no-contest into his bout with Stewart Nicoll, training alongside flyweight champion Joshua Van and coming off a notable win over Alessandro Costa. Nicoll sits at 8-3. The model favors Coria.

RJ Harris might have the most unusual story on the entire card, a five-fight winning streak built from a start in Toughman-style boxing exhibitions and a path to a UFC contract in roughly three years. He steps in on replacement notice for Allen Frye Jr. against Alvin Hines, whose lone UFC appearance was a competitive decision loss to Jhonata Diniz last summer. Hines gets the call.

Anna Melisano moves up a weight class on short notice to replace Veronica Hardy, bringing a six-fight win streak into her promotional debut against Dione Barbosa, a judo-based fighter out of Kings MMA with two submission finishes in her four UFC appearances, most recently an arm-triangle choke over Diana Belbita this spring. The model takes Barbosa.

Ezra Elliot and Damien Anderson close the prelims in a fight added just four days before the event, both men making their UFC debuts. Anderson is 5-0 with four submissions and a knockout, none of his wins going past round two, and trains out of the rebranded Simple Man Martial Arts academy in Austin. Elliot is 7-0 out of The MMA Lab, training alongside Jared Cannonier and Sean O'Malley, with every one of his seven wins ending in the first round, the fastest finishing pace on the card. Both fighters weighed in slightly over the featherweight mark Friday, a minor fight-week wrinkle rather than a major factor. Anderson is the model's read here.

The main card opens with two unbeaten-in-the-UFC prospects, Tommy McMillen and Alberto Montes, each coming off a first-round stoppage debut. Montes, the more experienced finisher at 32, has seven submissions among his eleven career wins, most recently a D'arce choke over Ricky Turcios. McMillen, training out of Red Hawk Academy alongside Sean O'Malley, earned a Performance of the Night bonus in his own debut. McMillen gets the model's lean.

Tabatha Ricci and Fatima Kline meet next in a strawweight bout with real trajectory questions on both sides. Ricci sits at 7-4 in the UFC, most recently a decision loss to Virna Jandiroba, while Kline is 3-1 in her UFC tenure. Kline has said directly she's hunting a finish this time rather than a decision, and her recent form backs that up with consecutive stoppage wins before a decision over Angela Hill. Kline takes the model's pick.

Chase Hooper and Mitch Ramirez both carry heavy finish rates into a lightweight bout that reads as live for a stoppage regardless of who wins. Hooper missed weight on Friday, coming in a pound and a half over the limit, the first time in his 13-fight UFC career that's happened, and forfeits a fifth of his purse to Ramirez as a result. It's worth flagging alongside the fact that his last two UFC losses both came by strikes while he was on his feet rather than the mat, a small crack in a game built around getting fights to the ground. Hooper still gets the call, but this one carries more question marks than most.

Jared Cannonier and Christian Leroy Duncan headline the co-main event in what plays as something close to a changing-of-the-guard fight. Duncan enters on real momentum, his striking accuracy the most efficient number in the matchup and his knockdown average signaling legitimate power, with two finishes in his last three outings. Cannonier, twelve years into his UFC tenure with a win over current champion Sean Strickland on his resume, has trended toward decisions more often as his career has gone on. The model sides with Duncan.

The main event closes the card with Dricus Du Plessis looking to bounce back from the first loss of his UFC run against Kamaru Usman, who is building his first full campaign at 185 pounds after a short-notice cameo there last year. Du Plessis carries the highest verified output on this entire card and a history of first-round finishes; Usman hasn't finished a fight since 2021 but owns the single best defensive number in the matchup, stopping takedowns at an elite rate. Both men share a win over Strickland, which gives the winner a real claim on the next shot at the belt. Du Plessis is the model's pick to close the show.