UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan Pre-Fight Analysis

UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday at the Meta APEX puts two ranked middleweights in a five-round main event. Brendan Allen, ranked fourth, has won three straight, including a stoppage of Reinier de Ridder after four rounds last October. Christian Leroy Duncan, ranked 10th, has won five straight and gets his first UFC main event. All 10 of his UFC bouts were scheduled for three rounds.

Two bouts changed late. Ismael Bonfim replaced Artur Minev against Francisco Prado, and Brendson Ribeiro replaced Alexander Poppeck against Felipe Franco. Both replacements last fought on July 25, 77 days before this card. Two fighters are also changing weight. Prado returns to lightweight after three bouts at welterweight, and Gerald Meerschaert moves up to light heavyweight.

The roster crosses itself in places. Dione Barbosa has beaten both women in the opening bout. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev beat both Julius Walker and Ribeiro this year. Nikolay Veretennikov beat both Prado and Niko Price. And four fighters arrive with a single UFC bout each: Allen Frye Jr., RJ Harris, Leon Shahbazyan and Otari Tanzilovi. Where a sample is that thin, this piece describes it rather than quoting rates off it.

Here is how the card reads, first fight to last.

Prelims

Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Melissa Gatto, Women's Flyweight

Ernesta Kareckaitė is 28 and 1-2 in the UFC, and all three of her UFC bouts went the full 15 minutes. Her last was a unanimous decision loss to Regina Tarin at catchweight in Mexico City in February, after a late change of opponent. She has been out 224 days.

She fights at volume in both directions, landing 7.28 significant strikes per minute and absorbing 6.47. Her takedown defense is 81 percent.

Melissa Gatto, 30, is 3-3 in the UFC. She lands 3.47 per minute, absorbs 2.67, and averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes. Across six UFC bouts she has spent about 30 percent of her cage time in control. Two of her three UFC wins were third-round stoppages from body shots.

They share an opponent. Dione Barbosa beat Kareckaitė by unanimous decision in May 2024 and Gatto by majority decision in April, a fight that ended a 686-day absence for Gatto. Kareckaitė's output against Gatto's takedowns is the matchup.

Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova, Women's Bantamweight

Alice Pereira is 20, 7-1, and 1-1 in the UFC. The loss was a split decision to Montse Rendon in September 2025. The win came in April, a second-round knee that stopped Hailey Cowan. Two bouts and 24 UFC minutes are not enough for her rates to mean much.

Daria Zhelezniakova, 30, is 10-3 and 2-2 in the UFC, and her results have alternated. Three of the four went to the judges, the exception a first-round arm-triangle choke against Ailin Perez in 2024. She lost a decision to Melissa Croden in April. She lands 4.13 per minute, and her takedown defense is 50 percent.

Rendon links them. Zhelezniakova beat her by unanimous decision in March 2024, 18 months before Rendon beat Pereira. Neither woman has spent more than a sliver of her UFC time in control, so the striking exchanges are where this one gets decided.

Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris, Heavyweight

Allen Frye Jr., 28, lost a unanimous decision to Guilherme Pat in his UFC debut in December and has been out 301 days. He was forced out of two assignments this year, and RJ Harris took one of those spots in July, knocking out Alvin Hines at 1:40 of the first round in his debut.

Now they meet. Frye is 6-1 and the larger man at 6'5" with an 80.5-inch reach. Harris is 6-0, 6'3", with a 78-inch reach.

Between them they have 16.7 UFC minutes, 15 of them Frye's. Frye spent more than half of his debut in control and still lost. Harris's entire UFC sample is 100 seconds. Neither man has attempted or defended a takedown in the UFC, so there is no rate to read in either direction.

Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro, Light Heavyweight

Felipe Franco, 25, is 11-2 and 1-1 in the UFC. He debuted on short notice at heavyweight in March and lost a unanimous decision to Mario Pinto, then returned to light heavyweight in July and stopped Levi Rodrigues Jr. with punches from mount in the second round. This is his third bout of the year.

His game is takedowns. He averages 3.70 per 15 minutes at 40 percent accuracy and defends 87 percent. Two bouts is a thin base, but his win came from exactly that route.

Brendson Ribeiro replaces Alexander Poppeck 77 days after his last fight, a unanimous decision loss to Magomed Tuchalov. He is 30, 17-11 with one no contest, and 2-6 in the UFC on four straight losses. Three of the four were stoppages: punches on the ground against Azamat Murzakanov, punches from back control against Oumar Sy, and a rear-naked choke against Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.

Ribeiro is 6'3" with an 81-inch reach. His takedown defense is 32 percent. In eight UFC bouts, opponents have landed 19 of the 28 takedowns they have tried against him, and that is the number Franco's wrestling goes after.

Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan, Welterweight

Niko Price walked away after a first-round rear-naked choke loss to Michael Chiesa in March, by UFC's account, and he is back 196 days later. He is 37, 8-11 in the UFC with two no contests, and has lost four straight: a decision to Themba Gorimbo, then stoppages inside two rounds against Jacobe Smith, Nikolay Veretennikov and Chiesa.

His fights rarely sit still. He lands 5.11 per minute and absorbs 5.57. In 21 UFC bouts he has landed five knockdowns and been knocked down five times.

Leon Shahbazyan, 30, is 12-5. His UFC debut in June lasted 23 seconds, a knockout loss to a body punch from Levan Chokheli. That is the whole sample, and no rate drawn from it means anything.

Price's last three losses all ended before the second round was over. Shahbazyan has 23 seconds of UFC tape. The early minutes are where this one turns.

Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim, Lightweight

Francisco Prado is 24 and back at lightweight after three bouts at welterweight, all decision losses: Jake Matthews, Nikolay Veretennikov and Charles Radtke. He is 12-5 and 1-5 in the UFC, on four straight losses, and all five of his UFC losses went to the judges. His one UFC win was a first-round knockout of Ottman Azaitar at lightweight in 2023.

Ismael Bonfim replaces Artur Minev 77 days after his last fight. He is 30, 20-7, and 2-4 in the UFC, and all four losses were stoppages, including the last three in a row: a doctor's stoppage against Nazim Sadykhov, a second-round TKO against Chris Padilla, and a first-round D'Arce choke against Axel Sola in July.

Bonfim is the sharper striker of the two on paper, landing 5.10 per minute at 54 percent to Prado's 3.68 at 43. Prado averages 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

The records point in opposite directions. Prado has never been stopped in the UFC. Bonfim has been stopped three straight times. One of those trends gives on Saturday.

Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert, Light Heavyweight

Gerald Meerschaert is 38 and has lost five straight, most recently a decision to Jacob Malkoun in Perth in May after missing weight, per UFC. He moves up to light heavyweight for his first bout there in more than a decade. He is 12-14 in the UFC, and all 12 wins were finishes, 11 of them submissions.

He averages 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. The other side of the record is damage. He has been knocked down seven times in the UFC, and two of the five losses in this skid were first-round stoppages.

Julius Walker, 27, is 7-3 and 1-3 in the UFC, and his last two losses came by knockout: Dustin Jacoby in the second round in February, then Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev in eight seconds in June. When he has had his way, he has wrestled. He averages 4.07 takedowns per 15 at 38 percent. Across four UFC bouts he has controlled 54.5 percent of his cage time.

Walker does his work on top. Meerschaert has 11 UFC submission wins. Which of those facts matters more depends on who ends up underneath, and for how long.

Main Card

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi, Bantamweight

This time last year, Malcolm Wellmaker was 2-0 in the UFC with two first-round knockouts, Cameron Saaiman at 1:59 and Kris Moutinho at 2:37. He has lost twice since: a unanimous decision to Ethyn Ewing at featherweight in November, then a second-round rear-naked choke against Juan Diaz in May. He is 32 and 10-2.

He is a switch-stance striker who lands 4.58 per minute and has landed none of his three UFC takedown attempts. His takedown defense is 46 percent.

Otari Tanzilovi, 28, is also 10-2. His UFC debut in June was a unanimous decision loss to Shane Collins at featherweight, and he lost a split decision to Josias Musasa on the Contender Series before that. He returns to bantamweight here. One UFC bout is too thin for rates, but he landed five takedowns against Collins.

Both of Wellmaker's UFC wins ended inside the first three minutes. Tanzilovi's five takedowns against Collins show the route he is likely to try.

Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III, Featherweight

Andre Fili makes his third start of the year at 36, with 27 UFC bouts behind him. He is 13-13 in the UFC with a no contest and has lost two straight: a split decision to Jose Delgado in March, then a second-round knockout from elbows against Vinicius Oliveira in June.

He lands 3.89 per minute, absorbs 4.55, and averages 2.24 takedowns per 15 at 46 percent. He has six knockdowns in the UFC and has been knocked down seven times.

Kai Kamaka III returned in April after 1,708 days away and edged Dakota Hope by split decision at lightweight. In July, Luke Riley stopped him with punches in the clinch in the first round at UFC 329. He is 31, 18-8-1, and 2-3-1 in the UFC. He lands 5.49 per minute at 59 percent and absorbs 6.03.

Kamaka sets the higher pace in both directions. Fili's takedowns are the variable that changes that math.

Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, Women's Strawweight

Loopy Godinez, ranked eighth at strawweight, is 33 and 9-6 across 15 UFC bouts. Tatiana Suarez submitted her in the second round at UFC 327 in April, ending a two-fight run of decision wins over Julia Polastri and Jessica Andrade.

She wrestles. Godinez averages 2.99 takedowns per 15 at 42 percent. She has landed 40 takedowns in the UFC and spent about 28 percent of her cage time in control. Five of her six UFC losses were decisions, and she has never been stopped by strikes in the UFC.

Ketlen Souza, 32, is 4-3 in the UFC and 4-2 at strawweight, the other loss coming at flyweight in her 2023 debut. She has won two straight: a decision over Bruna Brasil in February and a first-round head-kick knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June. Her takedown defense is 53 percent.

Both of Souza's UFC finishes, a rear-naked choke of Yazmin Jauregui and the Carnelossi kick, came in the first round. Godinez's takedowns against Souza's early finishing is the shape of it, and the first round answers a lot.

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert, Lightweight

Matheus Camilo, 25, is 11-3 and 2-1 in the UFC. Gabe Green submitted him in his debut. He then beat Viacheslav Borshchev by unanimous decision at UFC 322 and knocked out Nazim Sadykhov in the first round in Baku in June.

He averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 at 53 percent. No opponent has attempted a takedown on him in the UFC, so his takedown defense is undefined. The /stats page shows it as zero, which reflects no attempts, not no defense.

Jai Herbert, 38, is 14-6-1 and 4-5-1 in the UFC, and he has not put together consecutive wins or consecutive losses since March 2022. He stopped Mandel Nallo with ground punches in the first round in April. He has six knockdowns in the UFC and has been knocked down three times. At 6'1" with a 77-inch reach, he holds seven and a half inches of reach over Camilo, who is 5'10" with a 69.5-inch reach.

Camilo's path runs through takedowns, and Herbert defends 66 percent of them. The reach belongs to Herbert. The wrestling question belongs to Camilo.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan, Middleweight

Brendan Allen, ranked fourth at middleweight, is 30, 27-7, and 15-4 in the UFC. He has won three straight: a decision over Marvin Vettori, the de Ridder stoppage when the corner ended it after four rounds last October, and a decision over Edmen Shahbazyan in June. Seven of his 15 UFC wins came by submission.

He averages 1.52 takedowns per 15 at 41 percent and 1.1 submission attempts per 15. He has controlled about 30 percent of his UFC cage time.

Christian Leroy Duncan, ranked 10th, is 31, 15-2, and 8-2 in the UFC, on five straight wins: Andrey Pulyaev, Eryk Anders, Marco Tulio, Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier. Five of his eight UFC wins were knockouts, and both losses were decisions. He has not been knocked down in 10 UFC bouts.

He is a switch-stance striker with a four-inch reach edge, 79 inches to Allen's 75, at the same 6'2" height. He lands 4.45 per minute at 57 percent and absorbs 2.36. His takedown defense is 57 percent.

This is Duncan's first main event, and every one of his UFC bouts was scheduled for three rounds. Allen has fought three five-round main events: a submission of Paul Craig, a split decision over Chris Curtis that went all five, and the de Ridder stoppage after four. Rounds four and five are territory Allen has worked in. Duncan has not been there. Saturday asks what his first 15 minutes have not.

If you want to see the predictions for the card, visit mmafightadvisor.com/predictions, and for head to head comparisons on every fighter on it, visit mmafightadvisor.com/stats.