UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan Pre-Fight Analysis

There are 12 fights at the Meta APEX on Saturday, and a good part of the card is built from late changes. The main event itself is a reroute. Renato Moicano was booked against Brian Ortega at UFC 331 in September until Ortega withdrew with a cut, and the UFC moved Moicano here to face Tom Nolan. The co-main has a replacement too, with Jacobe Smith stepping in for Carlos Leal on less than two weeks' notice, and Dakota Hope took Francis Marshall's fight after Gastón Bolaños was cut in training.

The second thing that shapes the card is time away. Six of the 24 fighters have not competed in the UFC in more than a year, Mickey Gall for 714 days. Two more make their debuts.

The roster is also tangled up with itself. Randy Brown beat Gall in 2017. Luana Santos submitted Tainara Lisboa last year. Daniil Donchenko stopped both Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren. Karol Rosa beat Yana Santos and then lost to Luana, who Yana now faces.

The main event is five rounds. Moicano is 2-3 in five-round fights. Nolan has never been past the third. Moicano is 37, Nolan is 26.

Here is how the card reads, first fight to last.

Lucia Szabova vs. Tainara Lisboa

Szabova arrives 12-0 after winning Oktagon titles at both bantamweight and flyweight. She won both belts the same way, with ground strikes from mount, and her last fight was a title defense against former UFC bantamweight Lucie Pudilova. None of that is in the UFC database yet, so everything here is from her regional record.

Lisboa is a former two-time Muay Thai world champion who is 2-2 in the Octagon, and both losses are recent. Luana Santos submitted her with one second left in the second round in May 2025, and Melissa Croden stopped her in the third round last October. She is 35, has been out 378 days, and all four of her UFC fights were at bantamweight. This is her first at flyweight.

In the UFC she has been taken down seven times on 15 attempts. Szabova's title fights were won from top position. Whether Lisboa can keep this on the feet is what the opening fight answers.

Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez

Both arrive on three-fight win streaks, and both tend to decide where a fight happens. Rodriguez averages 4.04 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50 percent accuracy. Alencar averages 3.01 at 29 percent.

They also spend a similar share of their fights in control, 33.0 percent of UFC fight time for Alencar and 31.9 percent for Rodriguez. Something has to give when both want the same position.

There is a shared opponent. Alencar submitted Ariane Carnelossi in the third round last November. Rodriguez lost to Carnelossi in 2024 by disqualification for an illegal headbutt.

All five of Rodriguez's UFC wins went to the judges. Alencar has one submission in the promotion, the Carnelossi finish. Alencar is 36 and Rodriguez is 33. A third straight decision for either one would look exactly like what each of them has been doing.

Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot

Klein is 0-2 in the UFC. Mansur Abdul-Malik stopped him in the second round in February 2025, and Andrey Pulyaev did the same that August. He has not fought since, a gap of 455 days.

Kropschot, a former LFA middleweight champion, makes his debut at 9-3 after winning a decision on the Contender Series on August 11, his fifth straight win. That was the first time in his career he had gone to the scorecards. He carries about two inches of reach over Klein.

There is very little to read here from the Octagon. Klein has just under 15 minutes of UFC fight time across two bouts. Kropschot has none. The stakes are clearer than the matchup: Klein is still looking for his first UFC win.

Zachary Reese vs. Mickey Gall

Gall has not fought in 714 days and has lost four in a row. This is also his first fight at middleweight. All 13 of his previous UFC bouts were at welterweight.

His wins have always come from one place. Five of his six UFC victories are submissions. He defends 37 percent of takedowns.

Reese is 4-4 with a no contest in the UFC and has lost his last two, a split decision to Michel Pereira and a first-round knockout loss to Ryan Gandra in July. Three of his four UFC losses came by first-round knockout or TKO. He is two inches taller than Gall and takes opponents down at 61 percent accuracy.

Both men need a win. Gall's wins come on the ground, and Reese is the one with the takedown numbers. Whether Reese wants to go there is the question.

Julian Erosa vs. JeongYeong Lee

Erosa has said this is his last fight. He is 37, 9-9 in the UFC across three separate runs with the promotion, and has lost his last two, a decision to Melquizael Costa and a first-round knockout to Lerryan Douglas in March.

He has always fought at a high pace in both directions. He lands 6.18 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.31. Seven of his nine UFC losses came by knockout or TKO.

Lee won the 2023 Road to UFC featherweight tournament and is 1-2 since. He beat Blake Bilder by decision, was stopped by Hyder Amil in 65 seconds, and lost a decision to Daniel Santos in May 2025. He has been out 539 days.

Lee lands 3.38 per minute and defends 72 percent of takedowns. Both men are trying to stop a two-fight skid. For Erosa, there is no next fight to make up for this one.

Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren

The same man accounts for both of their UFC records. Daniil Donchenko stopped Sezinando in the first round of the Ultimate Fighter 33 final in September 2025, then stopped Berggren in the second round in Baku in June.

Sezinando was a finalist on that season and is 9-2 overall. He has been out 413 days. Berggren is 26, fights from a switch stance, and has finished all eight of his professional wins.

Their combined Octagon time is a little over 11 minutes, which is not enough to say anything about rates. Both men are fighting for their first UFC win.

Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope

Marshall is 4-3 in the UFC and has won his last two, a first-round submission of Erik Silva in February and a decision over Lucas Brennan in April. Three of his seven UFC fights went to split decisions, and he lost two of them.

Hope is stepping in on short notice for the second time in two UFC appearances. His debut in April was a split decision loss to Kai Kamaka III. He is 11-2 and trains at 4oz Fight Club alongside flyweight champion Joshua Van.

Both men's most recent fights were at lightweight. This one is at featherweight.

Marshall has allowed one takedown on nine attempts in the UFC. He has also spent nearly a third of his Octagon time in control. Close fights have been his pattern, and a short-notice opponent with one UFC bout leaves little film to plan around.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov

Two unbeaten UFC records meet here. Lebosnoyani is 2-0 in the promotion and 11-2 overall, with decision wins over Phil Rowe and SeokHyeon Ko this year.

Hasanov is 6-0 and has one UFC fight, a decision over Eric Nolan in Baku in June. That fight was a wrestling exhibition. He landed 17 takedowns on 27 attempts and held control for more than 11 of the 15 minutes. It is a single bout, so it says what he did that night rather than what he does every night, but it is a clear statement of method.

Lebosnoyani has four submission attempts across his two UFC fights. If Hasanov wrestles the way he did in his debut, what Lebosnoyani can do from his back is the fight.

Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos

The UFC's media panel ranks them sixth and seventh at bantamweight, and both are on three-fight win streaks.

Yana is 36 and has been out 392 days after withdrawing from an April fight with Norma Dumont. All seven of her UFC wins went to decision. She lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute at 57 percent accuracy, and she has been taken down 15 times on 31 attempts.

Luana is 26 and 6-1 in the UFC. She has spent 55.2 percent of her Octagon time in control and has allowed one takedown on seven attempts. Her last three wins came against Lisboa, Croden and Karol Rosa.

Rosa is the link. She beat Yana by split decision in 2023 and lost to Luana in June. The contrast is a clean one, a volume striker who goes the distance against a control grappler 10 years younger.

Ode' Osbourne vs. Cody Durden

This fight was supposed to happen at UFC 329 in July until Osbourne withdrew injured. Durden fought Alessandro Costa instead and was submitted in the second round.

Durden is 1-5 in his last six, and the one win, over Jafel Filho in April, came at bantamweight. He has built his UFC career on wrestling, with 43 takedowns on 89 attempts, and five of his nine UFC losses were submissions.

Osbourne has allowed 15 takedowns on 44 attempts in the UFC and has spent about 37 minutes under his opponents' control, against roughly seven minutes of control of his own. He also has about six inches of reach on Durden. His most recent fight, against Alibi Idiris in February, was overturned to a no contest.

The shared opponents point both ways. Both men beat Charles Johnson. Filho submitted Osbourne in the first round and lost a decision to Durden. The question is whether Durden can close that reach gap and get his hands on Osbourne.

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith

Smith is 13-0 and has finished all four of his UFC opponents in a combined 14.8 minutes. He has never been to a third round in the Octagon. He knocked out Bruce Whitehead in the first round at UFC 332 on October 3, and he took this fight 28 days later to replace Leal.

He is a wrestler first, with five takedowns on six attempts in the UFC.

Brown is 36 and 14-8 in the UFC, and he has lost three of his last four, including a second-round knockout by Gabriel Bonfim and a decision to Kevin Holland in April. He is 6'3" to Smith's 5'10", with about six inches of reach on him. Across 22 UFC fights he has allowed 16 takedowns on 63 attempts.

Niko Price connects them. Price knocked Brown out in 2018, and Smith submitted Price last year. Smith has 14.8 minutes of UFC experience. Brown has more than 231.

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan

Moicano is ranked 12th by the media panel and Nolan 14th. Moicano is 13-7 in the UFC, and seven of those wins are submissions. He came into April on back-to-back losses, to Islam Makhachev in a title fight and to Beneil Dariush, then submitted Chris Duncan in the second round. Ortega has now pulled out of their scheduled rematch twice, and both times Moicano ended up in a Fight Night main event instead.

Nolan is 5-1 in the UFC and has won five straight since his lone loss, a first-round TKO by Nikolas Motta in his debut. He beat Fares Ziam in June and called Moicano out afterward. He is 6'3" to Moicano's 5'11", though their reach is nearly identical.

Nolan is the busier striker, landing 4.84 significant strikes per minute to Moicano's 4.10. Moicano is the more effective wrestler, at 40 percent takedown accuracy to Nolan's 26, and he defends 64 percent of takedowns to Nolan's 58.

The five-round format is the variable. Moicano has been there five times. Nolan has never seen a fourth round, against a fighter whose last win came from the back.

If you want to see the predictions for the card, visit mmafightadvisor.com/predictions, and for head to head comparisons on every fighter on it, visit mmafightadvisor.com/stats.